Stock Market Madness

The Stock Market will CRASH tomorrow. After today's carnage on the global markets stock futures for the S&P and Dow indicate that the major indices will open significantly lower. This scenario of panic selling in the face of some economic woes, and disrupted financial liquidity has been played out many times over decades of investing, and could well signify the beginning of a Bear market. However, history also tells us that such selling in the face of bad news and impending recession is often over done. Institutions and fund managers will unload shares indiscriminately to appease clients. Leveraged share owners will have to cover their margin calls by dumping shares for quick cash. Conservative investors or those near retirement will exit the market in fear of the coming financial apocalypse. In the short term their actions will be deemed sensible, and may save them further short term losses. Looking farther out - even a few months out, the markets could well prove them wrong.

The U.S. may experience a mild recession, but the economy is still fundamentally strong. The subprime debacle is deep, and still unfolding, but it's really only a big wave compared to the ocean of global bank assets and resources. Productivity, or the value of goods relative to manufacturing resources required to make them is high. Real inflation beyond oil and gas prices is manageable. Price/earnings ratios, projected earnings for 2008, and the fundamentals of many stock valuations are still strong and those stocks are now cheaper to buy with the recent big declines. If you have some courage, and stay invested in the fundamentally sound companies you will be rewarded.

I am not a financial expert, just a seasoned individual investor who has stayed invested through all of the market gyrations, even through the crash of 1987. In retrospect I was right to stay invested, but I regret not having more conviction, and investing in some of the bargain stocks that these large pull backs create. I plan to have the conviction this time, and expect that the next few weeks will provide some buying opportunities.

As for tomorrow, hold on tight if you have U.S. stock holdings, but don't panic. I will even go out on a limb here, and predict that the Dow will be up for the week by next Friday. At some point the fear will subside. The short sellers will cash in and buy back their stocks. Bargain hunters will wade into the market. The Federal Reserve will slash interest rates to stimulate liquidity, and there will be positive earnings reports from companies.

Who knows? The Dow may even find positive territory by the end of Tuesdays trading. Not that it matters, it's the long term that counts. Financial markets will be stronger by the end of 2008, but the bears may linger for a while early in the year. The apocalypse pundits will ultimately be wrong again.

Tags:
Investing, Finances, Bear Market, Stock Market, Dow Jones, Stocks, Recession, Market Rally, Stock Futures, Money, Shares

The ILLEGAL Cannonball Run

Do you remember the cheesy "Cannonball Run" movie from 1981 that starred Burt Reynolds? It portrayed a bunch of comical misfits who auto race each other across the breadth of the U.S from coast to coast. In reality, there is an outlaw Cannonball run that originated over thirty years ago - conceived by car magazine writer and auto racer, Brock Yates, and fellow Car and Driver editor, Steve Smith, in 1971. In modern terms, the idea is to speed cross the States from New York City to Los Angeles at an average speed of more than ninety miles an hour while escaping speed traps, troopers, and avoiding vehicular homicide. It wouldn't surprise motor enthusiasts to know there has been an ongoing, illegal, highly risky, and nefarious pursuit by a few racing car speed freaks/tech geeks to break the purported original Cannonball record of 32 hours and 7 minutes. The "record time" was recently surpassed in 2006 by Alex Roy, a wealthy heir, and devious, self-promoting speed junkie from New York with a time of 31 hours and 4 minutes. This successful venture by Roy exacted both a personal (his girl friend left) and financial toll, and required considerable planning along with high tech gadgetry - his BMW ride was tricked out with every conceivable radar/laser detector/jammer, police scanners, a CB radio, and GPS units etc., and he used aerial spotters in planes to boot. In fact, it may have demonstrated more technical mastery than driving skill. Who can't drive 100 miles per hour?

This whole, fascinating escapade is well documented in the November, 2007 issue of Wired magazine, but there seems to be a cult-like attraction to, and admiration of the whole enterprise embedded in the article.

The story is riveting, and there is a vicarious thrill reading the details of their record breaking run - but it still strikes a disturbing chord.

The Wired journalist came across as a fan boy in his prose - expounding on the impressive technical expertise, and daring of these clever criminals. And criminals they are. There are numerous bereaved families who have lost loved ones because of reckless street racing by impulsive, car crazed youths. The mayhem on highways continues daily, and now we have a disillusioned, money is no object, rich speed junkie, breaking a record that flaunted numerous laws, and likely endangered more than a few lives. All of that brain power put into a criminal enterprise. What a waste - just so you can become a cult hero.

I don't blame Wired for publishing the story. It's a compelling one with more than a little technical cunning, but all of that macho excitement generated by the chasing of a dubious auto record overshadows the significant death toll on our highways from speeding and other dangerous maneuvers.

That same GPS technology that helped Roy blast across the country should be used to track speeding objects on the ground, with the info relayed to local authorities who then might intercept these maniacs, because as surely as the sun rises every morning the next Cannonball run is being planned. Mr. Roy, you must be a bright fellow - you inherited significant wealth - you have some technical talents. Why not use them for a higher calling instead of acting out your infantile fantasies?

Of course this kind of moralistic quipping will fall on deaf ears in this car crazy, Nascar fuelled world. Your crew will be too busy dealing with the documentary(ies), fan mail, commercials and movie deals pouring in to worry about any backlash. Has BMW offered to sponsor your next attempt?


Tags:
Cannonball Run, Outlaw Racing, Wired, Street Racing, Drivers, Speeding, Car Technology, Auto Safety, Car and Driver, Brock Yates, Highway Safety, Alex Roy

Tiger Roars Again

Tiger Woods is the best athlete so far in the Twenty First Century. As everyone in the golf world knows he won his thirteenth major golf championship today after dominating the field through 72 holes of the PGA tournament. His combination of mental, emotional, physical, and spiritual focus along with immense innate talent give him a unique stature in the world of sports and golf - the most difficult, pressure packed sport to master ever devised. His late father Earl seemed to have precognition of this talent, and his future accomplishments soon after Tiger was born. Even if you know little of golf you must take the time to watch this phenom in his prime as he closes in on the supreme golf record of Jack Nicklaus who holds the most professional major victories (eighteen) of any golfer. My prediction is that Tiger will surpass Jack's record by the year 2011 or by Tiger's Thirty fifth birthday. After that this prodigal ambassador of sport with his multicultural background, and native intelligence could look towards becoming a dominating political figure - maybe President of the United Nations? Let there be no doubt - Tiger is above all a humanitarian, something his father Earl taught him well. He is a reluctant hero, but that is his mantle nonetheless. We will watch in awe as you shoot for the stars Tiger. Go get em.

Tags:
Tiger Woods, Golf, Sports, Champions, Heroes, The PGA, Golf Majors

New Golf Season: Part III

Here is one of the best mental golf tips you will ever hear:

Once you have visualized the shot you want to hit and finished a practise swing that feels like that shot, then immediately go ahead and pull the trigger. You will likely be pleased with the result. For this to work though, you have to completely trust your pre-shot preparation and visualization, and then maintain a smooth tempo and rhythm through the shot. The key word here is trust - because that is what will help you maintain that smooth tempo and rhythm during the shot. Do not focus on any specific mechanical actions or thoughts, since that will likely create a disjointed, inhibited swing motion and subsequent poor shot.


The natural corollary to the above statement is to have a positive, confident approach. Have the self discipline to exclude negative thoughts from your golf shot preparation and execution. These concepts are more valuable to your improvement as a golfer than hitting a thousand balls at the range.

Tags:
Golf, Mental Golf, Sports Psychology, Golf Lessons, Golf Preparation, Golf Instruction

The Ultimate Shave

This will be the final word on shaving methods from Seasons Under The Sun. After all, there are more important health and hygiene issues out there. I had no intention of writing another shaving article, but sometimes a coincidental little event in life can cause a significant shift in our opinion. In this case it was the free Gillette Fusion razor that arrived in my mail box out of the blue a few weeks ago. This may be a brilliant marketing ploy by Gillette - if you like the razor you will keep buying the blades, and in this case they have made a revolutionary razor. Lest you accuse me of resorting to shameless corporate plugs, or of being a shill for Gillette, let me assure you that I have no affiliation with any product manufacturers. I will only recommend products that I use, and only those that have proven value to me.

The Gillette Fusion is simply a great razor. It has five tightly spaced, separate blades on one side, and another trimming blade on the other. It's also available in a power model with a micro-chip that regulates the voltage and blade action. Other high-tech features include a low battery indicator light and a safety switch that shuts the razor down after eight minutes of continuous operation.

I received only a few very minor inconspicuous nicks using this razor - from the very first shave with sharp blades, and through many subsequent shaves. It also works great using only a small amount of shaving cream for lubrication, and the shave is very close to the skin. My faith in razor shaving has been restored, so thumbs up to the new Gillette Fusion Razor!




Tags:
Gillette Fusion Razor, Gillette, Razors, Shaving, Shaving Technique, Men's Hygiene

Wine and Country

What's an excellent way to expand appreciation for your favorite varietal wines? Try sampling them from across different regions, geographies, countries and continents. By doing so, you will discover a world of subtle complexity in drinking varietals, since they derive some unique characteristics based on their geographic locale. Various Shiraz wines from across the globe fit this bill nicely. For example Shiraz wines from Australia and California tend to exhibit more potent fruit flavors as compared to those from the Northern Rhone. There are many other different tasting qualities based on climate and geography that all fall under the Shiraz(also known as Syrah) dominion.

The Reserve 2004 from Banrock Station is an Australian Shiraz we recently enjoyed, and their own description of Banrock Shiraz sums it up nicely:

"Vibrant purple with deep red hues, this wine epitomises the depth of colour and flavour Australian Shiraz's are renowned for. Aromas of black currant, cherry and spicy oak precede a soft and supple palate. Fresh fruit characters of cherry and red berry fruits are balanced by licorice and tantalising chocolate flavours. Hints of cinnamon, vanilla and oak add complexity to this exceptional wine."

Tags:
Wine, Varietal, Shiraz, Spirits, Viticulture, Wine Tasting

Shaving Update

This should be a final installment about the vagaries of trying to obtain a quick and easy trauma free shave. In a prior post entitled "Razor Blade Rules" I expressed some skepticism regarding razor blade technology and discussed some methods to reduce nicks while shaving with a blade. It then occurred to me that shaving cream might be a culprit as well, and I had some success shaving without it while keeping my face and the razor blade completely wet. This method was described in "Why Use Shaving Cream?". Although shaving without cream did work fairly well, I began to experience some skin irritation around the neck region, and this prompted me to try other shaving methods yet again. I've finally settled on a combination technique using an old electric shaver to remove most of the facial hair, followed by a razor blade shave with a dollop of shaving cream. Removing most of the hair with an electric razor is quick and allows for an easy, fast and close finishing shave with the blade. Of course this means a humble retraction of my prior stance against the use of shaving cream, but the compromise is using only a small amount to aid lubrication. I'm still convinced that using too much shaving cream can increase the risk of nicking your skin during a shave. Happy shaving everyone!

Tags:
Shaving, Shaving Cream, Razors, Electric Razor, Personal Hygiene, Razor Blades

Online Poker in Limbo

The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act recently passed by Congress has been an exercise in hypocrisy - all under the murky guise of protecting American citizens and their values. Somehow U.S. financial institutions will be required to block all transactions that might be connected to online gambling. Credit card companies have already done this by virtue of a built-in code that easily identifies such transactions. In the case of other transactions such as electronic checks this will likely prove to be a logistical nightmare. In a country already rife with widespread legal and illegal gambling including Las Vegas - the greatest mecca to gaming and vice ever created by man, you might think that online gambling would be considered as just one of many frivolous ways to risk money. This doesn't mean that unregulated, off shore Internet gaming doesn't raise serious concerns and questions, but most of those issues could be dealt with in other ways. Instead of criminalizing a form of entertainment that millions of U.S. folks participate in, and for better or worse one that's not going away, why not come to terms with the situation in a realistic, practical fashion. The U.S. gaming market is huge with billions of dollars going to Internet gaming sites. It's likely that many of these sites would be willing to cut some deals with the Department of Justice and other federal authorities in order to maintain "legal" access to U.S. patrons. For example, these sites could kick back 5-10% of their revenues to the government as a form of taxation for being allowed to offer their wares within U.S. borders, and still make tremendous profits. Rather than arresting executives of e-wallet companies (see Neteller news) the government could tax these third party transaction companies as well. In a regulated environment many aspects of Internet gaming could be scrutinized and monitored - such as the integrity of the gaming sites and their owners, preventing under age gambling, mandatory spending limits by customers, audits of financial transactions and prevention of money laundering. Personally, I think the spread of electronic gaming is wrong in many ways, but Pandora's box was opened long ago, and trying to hide behind ill conceived laws will only complicate the situation. The Department of Justice must have more important enforcement issues and investigations to spend tax payers money on. Since poker is perceived to have a significant skill component, it's likely that poker players will be the most resistant to legal attempts at restricting access to gaming sites. They have already joined to form a significant lobby group called the Poker Players Alliance that is actively lobbying the government to legalize online poker. In view of recent developments, it would seem that high profile online poker players are now at risk for potential arrest by the DOJ, by being nabbed for illegal online transactions, and possibly tax evasion unless they have been scrupulous in their win/loss records of playing. Of course, those who enjoy betting on horse races can rejoice, since there is a specific exemption in the act that allows legal Internet betting on horse races within the U.S. - as stated before, an exercise in hypocrisy.

Tags:
Poker, Online Poker, Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act, Poker Players Alliance, Internet Gaming, Gambling, Texas Holdem, Civil Liberties, Prohibition

New Golf Season: Part II

Alright then, after doing some soul searching and weighing the pros and cons, you've made the decision to dedicate yourself to another season of golf. In fact, you've decided to try and play better golf as well. Congratulations! So what's next? Do you pull out the clubs and start whacking ball after ball at the driving range, or pour through golf instruction books and magazines looking for swing patches and quick fixes? Most golfers including myself have enacted similar scenarios early in the golf season, and discovered that such approaches ultimately don't work. They often create false expectations about improved performance that simply fall flat when trying to bring it to the course. We need to start out with broad "strokes", so to speak. Unless you are physically fit and active throughout the year you should spend a few weeks getting in shape for golf. Physical fitness will definitely increase your chances of playing better golf - no guarantees, but strength, balance, flexibility, and stamina all contribute to improved performance. Your routine should include core training (working your extremities and body parts while keeping your torso centered or in place to strenghten the muscles that stabilize the body), some cardio work, stretching, and strength training. If possible, you should maintain a workout schedule throughout the golf season. Next time we'll discuss incorporating mental preparation techniques for starting the golf year, but your physical fitness regime will form a basis for an enhanced golf mind as well.

Go to New Golf Season: Part III

Tags:
Golf, Golf Fitness, Golf Physique, Golfer, Golf Training, Golf Game, Mental Golf, Sports, Sports Psychology

New Golf Season: Part I

For those of us who live in more northern climes the golf season will soon be here. Before you dust off the clubs this spring why not do an honest appraisal of your expectations for the new season? Do you really enjoy playing the game while spending significant time and money on it every year, or has it become another social routine, or misplaced passion that leaves you feeling drained and empty too frequently? In other words, don't play golf out of habit or obligation, or the expectations of friends. You should play golf because you truly love being out there whacking an indifferent little white ball around an unforgiving course. For some it may be the competitive challenge or a desire to improve, for others it may be the camaraderie and health benefits, and for many it may be a combination of qualities, or even intangible benefits that create a desire to play golf. Golf has become a trendy sport much glamorized by television and phenoms like Tiger Woods - all of this buzz can excite you to play golf when it really doesn't speak to the real you! We shouldn't try and manufacture the desire to golf as there are many things in life that are far cheaper, less time consuming, and every bit as enjoyable as a round of golf.

In the five hours (excluding travel time) spent during a golf round you could:

Spend some quality time with your kids or spouse

Visit or contact an ailing or otherwise neglected friend or family member

Volunteer for some community work

Plan your next vacation

Complete unfinished business or chores around the house

Update your web site

Engage in a myriad of other neglected activities unique to your situation and lifestyle

Have you addressed the motivation, priority, and lifestyle issues related to playing golf? Having done that, are you still determined to get out on the links? If the answer is yes, then you have accomplished Step One for the new season without even swinging a club. Go to New Golf Season: Part II


Tags:
Golf, Golf Season, Golfer, Golf Game, Golf Psychology

The Art of Espresso

At times it's an unexpected, creative surprise that can make you smile during the course of a trying day. An extra bit of thoughtful artistry to help shake off the doldrums, and awaken a world of possibilities. You might venture into a local coffee shop and order your favorite espresso drink, and there it is - a little bit of magic on the surface of your brew crafted delicately with the frothed milk. At the New Shelton wet/dry site you can find wonderful photos of this espresso art - a swan, a lion, and a butterfly among other images. After consuming the artful brew you just might exit the java joint with an extra spring in your step and a lighter heart.



Tags
Espresso Art, Espresso, Coffee, Java, Culture, Latte, Health, Creativity