Thursday, January 01, 2009

Stock Market Madness Reloaded

Back in January of 2008 while stock markets were plunging I brazenly posted an article titled Stock Market Madness that predicted a probable market recovery by year end. As this New Year begins it's obvious that I was far too optimistic in trying to predict a softer landing for the U.S. Economy, and didn't anticipate the ensuing ferocious Bear market. Unlike many "expert" financial pundits which I'm definitely not - I'm quite willing to scarf down some humble pie, and admit to some hubris in early 2008. At least I didn't call a bottom, but I did express faith in the basic fundamentals of U.S. markets, and their ultimate recovery by year's end. What I didn't anticipate was the level of greed, dishonesty, and corruption tearing away at the fabric of U.S. and global financial institutions. All of this highlighted more recently by the fifty billion dollar Bernie Madoff ponzi scheme scandal. Of course predicting stock markets in the short term is a shell game, and we tend to under estimate the wide spread effects of excessive leverage risk as it unwinds. Collectively we are far too trusting of investment firms in general, and companies that are publicly funded by common stock offerings. Despite these sobering thoughts, none of this has deterred Warren Buffet - perhaps the greatest investment guru in history - from making some significant late 2008 purchases in firms such as General Electric, and Goldman Sachs. If history is any guide post, Buffet will likely be proven right over the next few years by sensing that this harsh sell off has offered up some tremendous bargains in stocks. There are still honest, diligent, and profitable Buffet like companies out there that have been caught in the global down draft, and they may be poised for significant gains when recovery takes hold. It's up to individual investors to find them, or do everything possible to make sure that their financial advisers are doing the same on their behalf. It's one thing to argue about regulating the level of risk that investment banks, and similar entities can underwrite. However, there can be no debate about the need for more oversight and regulation of investment firms - to scrutinize their accounting and transactions, so that individual investors won't be fleeced by corporate psychopaths and con men. Unfortunately, as John Kenneth Galbraith so eloquently illustrates in his book "A Short History of Financial Euphoria" these huge speculative bubbles are prone to recur again and again as they are firmly entrenched in human psyche and the behavior of crowds.

One lesson that life seems to mete out time and again: Do your homework, and be wary of chasing that elusive "easy buck".

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Sunday, November 02, 2008

A President for the Century


The upcoming American Presidential election will be the most significant turning point in recent history. The United States can choose to look back and succumb to irrational fear, or choose a new path and future with an inspirational leader. Barack Obama wants to restore faith in America at home and abroad. He wants to be an agent of positive change for Americans and the world at large.

He's not a perfect man, and he won't be a perfect President as he readily admits, but he'll always try and do the right thing. That's the way he was raised, and his Senate record speaks for itself.

His economic and taxation plans may need some tweaking. His foreign policy beliefs especially as they concern Afghanistan may need adjustments. His energy policies may not be totally realistic. These should not be deal breakers for voters. You can feel it in your heart and soul. This man is what America and the world needs now. The politics of division and fear have had their day. We can't blame the present Administration for all of the world's woes, but they certainly fanned the flames of war and economic despair. Why would you continue with the status quo of a John McCain?

One man's opinion from the Great White North.

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Friday, September 26, 2008

Vegas High Roller Suite





A few years ago my wife and I stayed in some large, complimentary, luxury suites at the Paris Hotel courtesy of our "Old Style Vegas" casino host - lavish digs despite the fact I'd only been a moderate high roller. There are huge decked out suites available for the "whales" or million dollar gamblers with wrap around views of the strip and every amenity, but that would have been too much for us anyway. Our Vegas days are likely over for various reasons, and this has been chronicled in prior posts on this site, however it occurred to me that a few readers might be interested in seeing what the inside of a "High Roller Suite" looks like. This Suite had multiple rooms, and was lavishly appointed with a fantastic view of the pool area. Of course when you're a gambler you don't spend much time in your hotel room anyway - kind of a shame in this case.

Disclaimer:


The author is not presently involved in any gambling activities, and this site is not intended to promote such activities. The author has no direct or indirect financial interest in any gaming sites or casinos, either as a participant, employee, or owner.

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Sunday, June 29, 2008

Lifehacker?

Are you a fan of Lifehacker.com?

It's a clever site with special emphasis on advice for tweaking software apps and information technology - all in an effort to get you more organized in today's complex world of data overload. You can find a myriad of tips to tweak your e-mail settings, perform superior google searches, get in on early beta applications, incorporate widgets, and recommendations for a gazillion firefox extensions.

All of this raises the question:
Are we trying too hard to organize Chaos by using too many programmable devices and software applications? Some of us are spending more time organizing and tweaking when we should be deleting. Lifehack No. 1: Delete any technology or activity that doesn't enhance YOUR life.

For example, If you have paper, web based, cell phone, and PC versions of your TO DO list - YOU are over organized, and I'm willing to bet none of those lists are synchronized. Of course the technology is out there to do that, and you can spend a few more unproductive hours trying to synchronize your lists to all of your devices. Hmmm... using only one paper TO DO list is sounding even better. Then you might have the time to actually do something that's on the list.



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Saturday, March 08, 2008

New Miracle Mood Drug!

Have you heard of Wonderifinol?


It's a new drug developed and manufactured by Nofartis that will revolutionize the treatment of mood disorders. Forget about psychotherapy, cognitive behavior therapy, psychiatrists, counsellors and parole officers. You will be able to rid yourself of all negative thoughts, bad behavior, depression, and dysfunctional moods once and for all - and the price is cheap compared to a Starbuck's coffee addiction. It comes in red and blue pills. Either color works just as well, and you only need to take one pill every year. Double blind studies demonstrated far superior mood enhancement for those on the new medication as opposed to the placebo control group who underwent an intensive regime of optimized sleep, nutrition and exercise.

There are a few side effects and possible complications to consider though:

  • May cause excessive hair growth on the tongue and buttock regions.
  • Can increase the risk of terminal euphoria.
  • Should be used with caution by those who obtain secondary gain from their dysfunctional personality.
  • Those men who experience an erection longer than five minutes should seek immediate medical attention (less potent than Viagra).
  • Extreme euphoria can be associated with excessive risk taking or a sudden interest in extreme sports.
  • Gradual increase in sphincter tone may lead to constipation.



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    Saturday, March 01, 2008

    Utopian Dreams


    What is the ideal Society? That question brings forth a wide range of opinions, philosophies, proposals, values, and biased suggestions that are often in conflict with each other. My Utopian world may be your dystopian nightmare, just as one man's hell is anothers heaven. These considerations shouldn't stop like minded individuals from trying to create their own enlightened community, but where does a Utopia end and a Cult begin?

    In terms of creating a Utopian city there is always the danger of such cities becoming isolated and out of sync with mainstream culture as it exists within a larger nation. This view might describe Arcosanti - envisioned as an ecologically friendly "desert utopia". It was constructed an hour North of Phoenix in the Seventies by Italian architect Paolo Soleri. It's now home to fewer than a hundred people, and despite ongoing efforts to sustain the site it's in danger of becoming a stalled or failed Utopian dream, bereft of finances, and catering to Eco-tourists and Artists as a means of staying afloat. Perhaps it's the Artists keeping this Utopian vision alive.

    In this digital age how can we discuss any Utopian concepts without including the rise of Virtual reality or Virtual societies accessible via the Internet such as Second Life? The ability to create alter egos or personal Avatars that can thrive and interact within a virtual world might be considered a Utopian pursuit by those residents. In Second Life you can create your own appearance, earn a living, design a living space, and participate in many activities that emulate the real world. All of this happens within a virtual economy based on a currency called the Linden that has an actual exchange rate with the U.S. dollar. Perhaps this is a Utopia by proxy - individuals who consider their real lives to be unfulfilled and boring can pursue glamorous new hopes and dreams with a new identity in a parallel metaverse simply by logging in to their world of choice.

    Perhaps seeking a Utopia in the outer world by attempting to create a new society or participating in a virtual one without self awareness are ultimately futile pursuits, and we would be better served by searching for an inner harmony or wisdom that can nourish and enlighten us even in harsh environments. The enduring success of any Utopian vision may ultimately depend on the enlightenment and inner consciousness of its citizens, and not the social principles or technology that define it.

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    Monday, January 21, 2008

    Stock Market Madness

    The Stock Market will CRASH tomorrow. After today's carnage on the global markets stock futures for the S&P and Dow indicate that the major indices will open significantly lower. This scenario of panic selling in the face of some economic woes, and disrupted financial liquidity has been played out many times over decades of investing, and could well signify the beginning of a Bear market. However, history also tells us that such selling in the face of bad news and impending recession is often over done. Institutions and fund managers will unload shares indiscriminately to appease clients. Leveraged share owners will have to cover their margin calls by dumping shares for quick cash. Conservative investors or those near retirement will exit the market in fear of the coming financial apocalypse. In the short term their actions will be deemed sensible, and may save them further short term losses. Looking farther out - even a few months out, the markets could well prove them wrong.

    The U.S. may experience a mild recession, but the economy is still fundamentally strong. The subprime debacle is deep, and still unfolding, but it's really only a big wave compared to the ocean of global bank assets and resources. Productivity, or the value of goods relative to manufacturing resources required to make them is high. Real inflation beyond oil and gas prices is manageable. Price/earnings ratios, projected earnings for 2008, and the fundamentals of many stock valuations are still strong and those stocks are now cheaper to buy with the recent big declines. If you have some courage, and stay invested in the fundamentally sound companies you will be rewarded.

    I am not a financial expert, just a seasoned individual investor who has stayed invested through all of the market gyrations, even through the crash of 1987. In retrospect I was right to stay invested, but I regret not having more conviction, and investing in some of the bargain stocks that these large pull backs create. I plan to have the conviction this time, and expect that the next few weeks will provide some buying opportunities.

    As for tomorrow, hold on tight if you have U.S. stock holdings, but don't panic. I will even go out on a limb here, and predict that the Dow will be up for the week by next Friday. At some point the fear will subside. The short sellers will cash in and buy back their stocks. Bargain hunters will wade into the market. The Federal Reserve will slash interest rates to stimulate liquidity, and there will be positive earnings reports from companies.

    Who knows? The Dow may even find positive territory by the end of Tuesdays trading. Not that it matters, it's the long term that counts. Financial markets will be stronger by the end of 2008, but the bears may linger for a while early in the year. The apocalypse pundits will ultimately be wrong again.

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    Tuesday, December 04, 2007

    The ILLEGAL Cannonball Run


    Do you remember the cheesy "Cannonball Run" movie from 1981 that starred Burt Reynolds? It portrayed a bunch of comical misfits who auto race each other across the breadth of the U.S from coast to coast. In reality, there is an outlaw Cannonball run that originated over thirty years ago - conceived by car magazine writer and auto racer, Brock Yates, and fellow Car and Driver editor, Steve Smith, in 1971. In modern terms, the idea is to speed cross the States from New York City to Los Angeles at an average speed of more than ninety miles an hour while escaping speed traps, troopers, and avoiding vehicular homicide. It wouldn't surprise motor enthusiasts to know there has been an ongoing, illegal, highly risky, and nefarious pursuit by a few racing car speed freaks/tech geeks to break the purported original Cannonball record of 32 hours and 7 minutes. The "record time" was recently surpassed in 2006 by Alex Roy, a wealthy heir, and devious, self-promoting speed junkie from New York with a time of 31 hours and 4 minutes. This successful venture by Roy exacted both a personal (his girl friend left) and financial toll, and required considerable planning along with high tech gadgetry - his BMW ride was tricked out with every conceivable radar/laser detector/jammer, police scanners, a CB radio, and GPS units etc., and he used aerial spotters in planes to boot. In fact, it may have demonstrated more technical mastery than driving skill. Who can't drive 100 miles per hour?

    This whole, fascinating escapade is well documented in the November, 2007 issue of Wired magazine, but there seems to be a cult-like attraction to, and admiration of the whole enterprise embedded in the article.

    The story is riveting, and there is a vicarious thrill reading the details of their record breaking run - but it still strikes a disturbing chord.

    The Wired journalist came across as a fan boy in his prose - expounding on the impressive technical expertise, and daring of these clever criminals. And criminals they are. There are numerous bereaved families who have lost loved ones because of reckless street racing by impulsive, car crazed youths. The mayhem on highways continues daily, and now we have a disillusioned, money is no object, rich speed junkie, breaking a record that flaunted numerous laws, and likely endangered more than a few lives. All of that brain power put into a criminal enterprise. What a waste - just so you can become a cult hero.

    I don't blame Wired for publishing the story. It's a compelling one with more than a little technical cunning, but all of that macho excitement generated by the chasing of a dubious auto record overshadows the significant death toll on our highways from speeding and other dangerous maneuvers.

    That same GPS technology that helped Roy blast across the country should be used to track speeding objects on the ground, with the info relayed to local authorities who then might intercept these maniacs, because as surely as the sun rises every morning the next Cannonball run is being planned. Mr. Roy, you must be a bright fellow - you inherited significant wealth - you have some technical talents. Why not use them for a higher calling instead of acting out your infantile fantasies?

    Of course this kind of moralistic quipping will fall on deaf ears in this car crazy, Nascar fuelled world. Your crew will be too busy dealing with the documentary(ies), fan mail, commercials and movie deals pouring in to worry about any backlash. Has BMW offered to sponsor your next attempt?


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    Sunday, August 12, 2007

    Tiger Roars Again


    Tiger Woods is the best athlete so far in the Twenty First Century. As everyone in the golf world knows he won his thirteenth major golf championship today after dominating the field through 72 holes of the PGA tournament. His combination of mental, emotional, physical, and spiritual focus along with immense innate talent give him a unique stature in the world of sports and golf - the most difficult, pressure packed sport to master ever devised. His late father Earl seemed to have precognition of this talent, and his future accomplishments soon after Tiger was born. Even if you know little of golf you must take the time to watch this phenom in his prime as he closes in on the supreme golf record of Jack Nicklaus who holds the most professional major victories (eighteen) of any golfer. My prediction is that Tiger will surpass Jack's record by the year 2011 or by Tiger's Thirty fifth birthday. After that this prodigal ambassador of sport with his multicultural background, and native intelligence could look towards becoming a dominating political figure - maybe President of the United Nations? Let there be no doubt - Tiger is above all a humanitarian, something his father Earl taught him well. He is a reluctant hero, but that is his mantle nonetheless. We will watch in awe as you shoot for the stars Tiger. Go get em.

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    Wednesday, June 20, 2007

    New Golf Season: Part III

    Here is one of the best mental golf tips you will ever hear:

    Once you have visualized the shot you want to hit and finished a practise swing that feels like that shot, then immediately go ahead and pull the trigger. You will likely be pleased with the result. For this to work though, you have to completely trust your pre-shot preparation and visualization, and then maintain a smooth tempo and rhythm through the shot. The key word here is trust - because that is what will help you maintain that smooth tempo and rhythm during the shot. Do not focus on any specific mechanical actions or thoughts, since that will likely create a disjointed, inhibited swing motion and subsequent poor shot.


    The natural corollary to the above statement is to have a positive, confident approach. Have the self discipline to exclude negative thoughts from your golf shot preparation and execution. These concepts are more valuable to your improvement as a golfer than hitting a thousand balls at the range.

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    Wednesday, May 16, 2007

    The Ultimate Shave

    This will be the final word on shaving methods from Seasons Under The Sun. After all, there are more important health and hygiene issues out there. I had no intention of writing another shaving article, but sometimes a coincidental little event in life can cause a significant shift in our opinion. In this case it was the free Gillette Fusion razor that arrived in my mail box out of the blue a few weeks ago. This may be a brilliant marketing ploy by Gillette - if you like the razor you will keep buying the blades, and in this case they have made a revolutionary razor. Lest you accuse me of resorting to shameless corporate plugs, or of being a shill for Gillette, let me assure you that I have no affiliation with any product manufacturers. I will only recommend products that I use, and only those that have proven value to me.

    The Gillette Fusion is simply a great razor. It has five tightly spaced, separate blades on one side, and another trimming blade on the other. It's also available in a power model with a micro-chip that regulates the voltage and blade action. Other high-tech features include a low battery indicator light and a safety switch that shuts the razor down after eight minutes of continuous operation.

    I received only a few very minor inconspicuous nicks using this razor - from the very first shave with sharp blades, and through many subsequent shaves. It also works great using only a small amount of shaving cream for lubrication, and the shave is very close to the skin. My faith in razor shaving has been restored, so thumbs up to the new Gillette Fusion Razor!




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